Afghanistan

Background

• 1979 The USSR invaded Afghanistan and placed Babrak Karmal in power;
• 1988 The East-West rapprochement and the successes of US- and Pakistan-backed Islamic opposition led to the signing of accord between Afghanistan, Pakistan, the US and USSR
• 1989 Russia withdrew leaving the pro-Soviet government of President Najibullah in Kabul;
• 1992 Najibullah was deposed by Islamic opposition fighters who subsequently fought each other;
• 1996 Radical Islamic group, the Taliban, seized Kabul;
• 1998 The Taliban controlled 90% of the country, the remainder under the authority of an alliance headed by former President Burhanuddin Rabbani, whose government is still recognised by the UN.

SG's UNSMA Report (S/1999/994)

The 21 September 1999 report reviewed the activities of the UN Special Mission to Afghanistan (UNSMA) since 21 June 1999.

Political Developments

A meeting of the "six plus two" group [China, Iran, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, the US and Uzbekistan] was convened in Tashkent over 19/20 July. The meeting adopted the Tashkent Declaration on Fundamental Principles for a Peaceful Settlement of the Conflict in Afghanistan, in which the members of the group reiterated their commitment to a peaceful political settlement of the conflict and the resumption of peace talks. The group also agreed not to provide military support to any Afghan party.

However, within a week of the meeting, a major Taliban offensive against the UF was launched in the Shomali plains, while there had been no direct political contact between the two sides. The Taliban continued to assert that the UF must embrace the Emirate system while the UF challenged the Taliban's authority to make such a demand. On 14 September, the UF announced it was to establish a 10-member cabinet of ministers, which was likely to harden the divide with the Taliban.

Neither UF nor the Taliban appeared open to Pakistani mediatory initiatives, the UF in particular objecting to alleged Pakistani military and political support for the Taliban. However, Pakistan was still pursuing the initiative. On 5 July, Washington imposed financial and economic sanctions against the Taliban until the suspected terrorist Osama bin Laden was removed from Afghanistan.

Military Situation

The 28 July Taliban ground and air offensive included between 2,000 and 5,000 recruits, primarily from Pakistani religious schools, some of whom were reportedly under 14 years old. Through the offensive, the Taliban captured most of the Shomali plains, the river port of Sher Khan Bandar and the districts of Imam Sahib and Dasht-i-Archi. However, a 5 August UF counter-attack retook the majority of that territory.

A fresh Taliban attack on 11 August secured terrain through the forced displacement of civilians and the destruction of houses and the agricultural infrastructure. The UF attacked in Kunar, Laghman and Ghor Provinces, while fighting at Dara-i-Suf had continued unabated since the spring.

UNSMA estimated that 1,200 Taliban and 600 UF fighters were killed during fighting between 28 July and 28 August, although there was little overall change in territorial terms.

Before 28 July, the east of Kunduz city and the Dara-i-Suf District of Samangan Province had witnessed heavy fighting, and there was heavy artillery and rocket exchange on the front line north of Kabul. The Taliban airforce maintained aerial bombardments against UF military and civilian targets while UF continued with rocket attacks against Kabul airport and its environs.

Activities of UNSMA

UNSMA conveyed messages and reactions between both sides' leaderships and informed Afghans inside and outside the country of each other's thinking while the Special Envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, maintained contact with many concerned parties.

On 28 July, the UN Department of Political Affairs had briefed the Security Council on developments in Afghanistan during informal consultations and, on 27 August, the Council convened an open debate on Afghanistan.

Humanitarian Activities

A UN mission to the Panjshir valley at the end of August reported up to 100,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the area. WFP was preparing a large-scale movement of food commodities, although the health situation for IDPs was reportedly under control. There was a lack of humanitarian access to Panjshir valley and the Shomali plains

Some 40,000 IDPs from the Shomali plains were in Kabul and, since 7 August, WFP had been providing food for 10,000 people (almost 90% women and children) in the former Soviet embassy compound.

Indonesia

Background

• 1975 In August, the pro-independence FRENTIL group won control of East Timor; In December, Indonesia invaded;
• 1976 East Timor was annexed by Indonesia, although this has never been recognised by the UN;
• 1991 Indonesian troops kill up to 250 civilians at a funeral in Dili;
• 1998 President Suharto was replaced by Habibie in May, who pledged autonomy for East Timor;
• 1999 Habibie extended his pledge to independence; in May, Portugal and Indonesia agreed to a UN-sponsored referendum on East Timor's future status; in June, the vote was postponed to the end of August in response to attacks by pro-Indonesian militia in which government security forces were complicit;
• August The referendum was eventually held and overwhelmingly opted for independence; this prompted widespread violence throughout the province;
• September The Security Council authorised an Australian-led peacekeeping force (INTERFET) to help restore stability.

Indonesian Troops Destroy Rest of Dili

As Indonesian Major-General Kiki Syahnakri transferred responsibility for security in East Timor to Major-General Peter Cosgrove, the Commander of the International Force for East Timor (INTREFET), at the end of August, Indonesian troops set fire to the remaining buildings in Dili. Some 1,500 Indonesian troops stayed on in East Timor after the formal split from Jakarta. It was suspected that some troops and militia fighters would be permitted to remain in East Timor to sabotage the nascent state.

Anti-independence militia leaders threatened a guerrilla campaign against INTERFET from bases near West Timorese border. Washington declared that a restoration of previous relations with Indonesia was contingent upon a severing of links with the militias and movement, including humanitarian access, in West Timor, where over 200,000 East Timorese were believed to have been moved.

On 19 October, Indonesia's assembly ratified the August referendum results granting East Timorese independence. Jakarta was expected to hand over formal control to the UN by the end of 1999. There was continuing tension between Australian troops and anti-independence militias leading to the deaths of three militia fighters on 16 October.

Moves for Independence in Aceh

During the week beginning 18 October, Abdurrahman Wahid was chosen as president of Indonesia and he was soon presented with secessionist demands from various provinces. In particular, during the week beginning 8 November, over 100,000 people, including students, community leaders and Muslim clerics, demonstrated in Aceh's provincial capital, Banda Aceh, threatening a unilateral declaration of independence unless they were offered a referendum on the issue by December.

The province of Aceh had been placed under military rule between 1989 and 1998, during which time special army units waged a brutal campaign against the separatist Free Aceh Movement, including hundreds of alleged instances of rape, torture and summary execution and an estimated 2,000 deaths.

The lifting of military rule in 1998 had prompted popular support for a referendum and attacks against the security forces by increasingly well-armed opposition forces. In response, the security forces launched another crackdown in 1999 causing more civilian deaths. Unlike in East Timor, Aceh was broadly Islamic and enjoyed considerable sympathy in the rest of Indonesia, producing strong public pressure to resolve the dispute peacefully. However, observers did not think such sympathy extended to support for independence, as Aceh provided a considerable proportion of government revenues and there were broader fears over the more widespread disintegration of the country.

However, while President Wahid asserted that Aceh could claim same rights to a referendum as East Timor, other - particularly military - officials strongly opposed this. More moderate voices in Aceh were pushing for early negotiations between Wahid and the separatists.

US Maintains Pressure on Jakarta

During the week beginning 27 November, a senior American delegation led by the US Ambassador to the UN, Richard Holbrooke, met with the UN transitional authority in East Timor and leaders of the pro-independence movement. Washington was linking restoration of military ties with Jakarta to the fate of East Timorese in West Timor. Armed pro-Indonesia militia groups continued to prevent refugees leaving camps in West Timor. Holbrooke complained to the Indonesian government that money spent on refugees in West Timor would be better directed at rebuilding East Timor's infrastructure.

Congress had recently agreed legislation requiring Jakarta both to facilitate the speedy return of refugees and to bring the perpetrators of atrocities in East Timor to justice as a requirement for restoration of military relations. However, there remained no commitment from Jakarta either to disarm or to break up the militias.

A 16 December Financial Times report revealed that, according to Indonesian government estimates, up to 640,000 displaced people escaping violence were sheltering in camps across the country. Included in this were nearly 150,000 East Timorese.

Pakistan

Military Coup in Pakistan

On 12 October, General Pervez Musharraf took over leadership of Pakistan in a military coup. The move came in response to an attempt by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to dismiss Musharraf as head of the armed forces. However, there was consensus over Sharif's dismal record in office since coming to power in 1997 with a huge majority. Sharif was implicated in corruption endemic in Pakistan and had also attacked political opponents as well as institutions essential to the functioning of a democratic state. Furthermore, political appointments were made to the police, and successive chiefs of staff of the army were removed for criticising Sharif's methods.

There appeared to be broad popular support for the coup. However, much would hinge upon Musharraf's subsequent announcements and behaviour, particularly relating to the timetabling for the restoration of democracy.

There were Indian and American fears that events leading to the coup were sparked by tension between the Pakistani army and Sharif resulting from the withdrawal of Pakistani troops from Kashmir at Sharif's behest. Meanwhile, Karachi remained beholden to the West in view of its desire to reschedule its $3 billion debt to Western governments and to secure a $280m loan disbursement from the International Monetary Fund. There was more general international concern that tensions with India could re-ignite over Kashmir, particularly as both India and Pakistan were nuclear powers.

Sri Lanka

Elections in Sri Lanka

An 18 December Economist report stated that the election of Chandrika Kumaratunga to president in 1994 had appeared to offer an end to the protracted war between the 17-year rule of the party she had defeated and the Tamil minority opposition fighters. However, the Sri Lankan economy had since declined and the government appeared to be losing the on-going war.

Both Kumaratunga and the other main candidate in forthcoming presidential elections on 21 December, Ranil Wickremesinghe, head of the United National Party (UNP), agreed that to resolve the conflict and maintain Sri Lankan unity would require devolution of power to the north and east, the main area of Tamil opposition. Both also favoured pro-market economies. The UNP and Kumaratunga's Sri Lanka Freedom Party, which represented the core of the ruling People's Alliance, split the majority Sinhalese population and so analysts suggested that they needed to pursue minority votes, limiting moves towards extremism. Thus, the differences between the candidates primarily centred around personality.

The election was ostensibly to be fought over peace: Kumaratunga brought the date forward by one year, professedly because parliament had rejected proposed radical constitutional changes designed to appease the Tamil minority. The suggested changes were to involve transferring most presidential powers to a prime minister around the British model, with the country changing from a single state into a union of regions which would manage health and education and elements of the police, thereby providing Tamils with control of much of their own affairs in their majority areas. The proposal was largely supported by the main Tamil party in parliament. UNP was pressing to preserve Sri Lankan unity, although it had suggested devolving more powers to the south and east, and analysts believed Kumaratunga required UNP support to garner the two-thirds parliamentary majority required to change the constitution.

Early in Kumaratunga's administration, the army had recaptured the principal northern city of Jaffna. However, in November 1999, the Tamil Tigers seized northern positions while the Tigers' leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran, remained opposed Kumaratunga.

Observers suggested that southerners remained largely removed from the direct effects of the war by geographical distance and by censorship. However, the overall costs had been considerable: since the beginning of the fighting in 1983, out of a total population of 19 million, 60,000 people had been killed and around 800,000 had been displaced, while a massive percentage of the country's GDP had been lost through destruction of property, military spending and lost tourism and foreign investment. Peace initiatives were likely to be politically difficult: devolution would lead to severe problems with Sinhalese and Muslim minorities in the north east; and the extremist Tigers had no political wing, leaving question marks as to their ability to join government.

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