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Continuity / Change: Rethinking Options for Trident Replacement
Dr. Nick Ritchie, June 2010

Advocates of the current Trident replacement process insist there are only two real choices: a like-for-like replacement of the current system or unilateral nuclear disarmament. The latter remains politically unacceptable leaving only like-for-like replacement.

But since the decision to proceed with a like-for-like replacement set out by the Labour government in a 2006 (External) White Paper , two things have happened that justify a rethink: 1) arguments that the international community must make significant progress towards a world free of nuclear weapons have gathered considerable momentum and have been taken forward by the Obama administration; 2) the UK has moved into a deep recession that will place severe constraints on public spending for the next two parliaments at a time when the Ministry of Defence budget is also facing a multi-billion pound black hole in its procurement programme.

The Nuclear-Armed Britain programme published a briefing paper on Stepping Down the Nuclear Ladder: Options for Trident on a Path to Zero in May 2009 setting out opportunities and obstacles for a number of options between a like-for-like replacement of the current Trident system and unilateral nuclear disarmament. This was followed by a workshop at the University of Bradford in September 2009 to explore these options through a set of working papers. The purpose was to open space for debate and challenge orthodox understandings about what is and is not possible for UK nuclear weapons policy.

This report explores these options, opportunities and obstacles in detail. Part I examines the current political context in terms of the progress of the Trident replacement programme to date, renewed international momentum to work towards a world free of nuclear weapons, and constraints on public spending together with a detailed look at cost of the like-for-like replacement programme.

Part II examines in detail options for the Trident replacement programme including:

1. A ‘Trident lite’ replacement programme that adheres to current understandings of ‘minimum deterrence’.
2. A ‘reduced readiness’ downsized Trident replacement programme that ends ‘continuous-at-sea deterrence’ and scales down the requirements for ‘minimum deterrence’.
3. A flexible, dual-use ‘hybrid’ submarine programme for conventional and nuclear missions that also ends ‘continuous-at-sea deterrence’ and scales down ‘minimum deterrence’ requirements.
4. A nuclear-armed cruise missile capability aboard current or new attack submarines.

The report examines precedents from US nuclear weapons policy to support the option of a dual-use ‘reduced readiness’ UK nuclear posture. The report ends by exploring the potential flexibility and cost of the options examined based on data provided by successive governments in Command Papers, Parliamentary answers and evidence before Parliamentary hearings.

The report shows that there is a genuine opportunity for the new coalition government to demonstrate international leadership with the UK’s nuclear arsenal without recourse to unilateral nuclear disarmament that remains politically unacceptable at the present time. This includes opportunities to reduce the procurement and operational costs of the Trident replacement programme at a time of serious and sustained reductions in public expenditure and reinforce the renewed global momentum towards a world free of nuclear weapons.

briefing cover

Download the report here

Dr. Nick Ritchie
Department of Peace Studies
University of Bradford
Bradford UK
BD7 1DP

Email: n.ritchie@bradford.ac.uk
Tel: +44 (0)1274 236860

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